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For a brief period, the former US president gave the impression to adopt a resolute position regarding Ukraine. After making threats of "severe consequences" during the summer if Putin carried on hindering truce discussions, the former president ultimately imposed considerable penalties on the Russian two largest oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft. This decision seriously hindered the Russian leader's ability to support his military invasion in the region.

But, via his latest detailed peace plan for Ukraine, which was developed by US and Russian representatives lacking Ukraine's or European involvement, the former president has clearly returned to his pro-Putin position.

Rewarding Military Action

Trump's plan would in practice reward Putin for invading a sovereign nation while putting the country's political freedom in danger. Although ringing proclamations that "The nation's independence will be confirmed", significant aspects of the initiative effectively weaken that very autonomy. What represents a Moscow's wish would likely be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Demonstrating his business experience, the former president persists to consider the war as a mere land disagreement, like ceding Russia a section of Ukrainian land will satisfy the ruler. However, Russia's military campaign is not only about controlling a charred region of economically weakened land in the Donbas region. Rather, it is about Ukraine's democratic governance – and the Russian leader's clear desire to destroy it so it no longer acts as an appealing model for the Russian people of the responsible government that Putin's increasing autocracy denies them.

Territorial Concessions

While keeping in place the currently divided regions of these areas, Trump's plan would require Ukraine to abandon the entire Donetsk region. Beyond rewarding Russia with land that its forces have been unsuccessful to occupy in over a decade of conflict, this concession would leave Ukraine's defenses severely weakened.

Donetsk is the location of the nation's much-vaunted "fortress belt", the fortified defensive positions that represent a essential obstacle to enemy progress. Trump would have Ukraine surrender these positions, leaving Putin a open route to the capital in case he eventually opt to restart the conflict.

Military Reductions

Additionally, in a step that would facilitate renewed hostilities easier for the Russian military, Trump would mandate the nation to diminish the size of its troops from their current 800,000 to 850,000 soldiers to a maximum of 600,000. Significantly, Trump's initiative sets no equivalent constraints on Russian forces.

In what appears as a accommodation to Putin's efforts to characterize the nation's legitimate government as Nazis, Trump's plan asserts: "All Nazi doctrine and practices must be opposed and prohibited." Apparently to underscore this aspect, it insists that "The nation will hold political contests in 100 days" of a ceasefire agreement. Meanwhile, the proposal sets no obligation that Putin endanger his regime by allowing democratic processes in his own country.

Protection Assurances

Admittedly, the initiative has Russia commit not to "invade bordering nations" and to "incorporate in regulation its stance of peaceful relations towards European nations and Ukraine". Yet given that Putin has violated comparable treaties in the previous instances – including the 1994 agreement, in which Russia committed to respect the nation's borders in return for surrendering its former Soviet nuclear arsenal, and the Minsk accords, in which Russia promised to a truce and a handback of seized territory in the region to Ukrainian control – how should the international community believe Putin on this occasion?

This explains the Ukrainian government has been so determined on external defense commitments. Although the proposal warns of a "immediate coordinated military response" in case Russia restart its military campaign, and provides that "Ukraine will receive dependable defense commitments", the details range from unclear to alarming. The initiative would not only block Ukraine Nato membership but also prohibit alliance nations from stationing troops on Ukraine's soil, effectively precluding the peacekeeping contingent, reportedly led by the UK and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been relying to stop Putin from restoring his diminished troops, restocking, and attacking again.

Global Reaction

An additional supplementary accord according to sources would offer the nation with a Nato-style protection assurance, in which any subsequent "serious, planned, and ongoing aggression" by Russia on Ukraine "shall be regarded as an attack threatening the stability and safety of the Western nations." That suggests a military response. However in contrast to a powerful national defense – the nation's best defense against future invasion – the effectiveness of the side agreement would depend on the willingness of Nato leaders, such as Trump, to respond with force to Putin's hostilities, an action they have {not