Starmer's Backers Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Block Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Return
Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly started a coordinated initiative to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a return to parliament. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an upcoming by-election.
Serious Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Procedure
Multiple members on the party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are keen to avert any potential leadership challenge.
The party apparatus is said to have swung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned departure, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable expense and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he prompted consternation in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the Labour leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially stand for the Labour leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, allies of the Mayor have warned against overstating the level of any planning, suggesting he is deeply committed to his current role and would only re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Current Climate and Poll Ratings
Against a backdrop of opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour personality with favourable public approval ratings.
If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the byelection against competition from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible bid for the leadership.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
High-ranking Labour sources have said that a "Block Burnham" operation is already under way, with the party machinery being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself said that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
NEC members have reportedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated ÂŁ500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
A number of insiders also expressed concerns about Reform UK potentially fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.
Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. There is also speculation the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
Yet, one Burnham ally warned against assuming the NEC would simply reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.
The trade unions occupy a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The constituency in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a significant challenge, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.
If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the backbenches.
The resigning MP stated he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an offensive online group.
